Let your math speak

The Puck Hogs’ resident mathematician did a quick statistical analysis based on regular season stats so far this season.  Basically, he compared the average goals scored per player on each team in Silver B in the regular season.

Try and keep up with his analysis here…

If you take the number of players that have scored goals on each team and divided it by the total number of goals scored by that team, you come up with the following data.  Keep in mind, the closer that this number is to 1.0 for a team, the more spread out the scoring is:

These teams have 2 or fewer goals,  and can be considered outliers, so we’ll exclude them from this analysis -  

Pirates 1.0
SMB 1.0
Spitfires 1.0
Roughriders (0 goals)

Now it gets interesting -

Misfits 0.750
Pints 0.714
NorCal A 0.667
Puck Hogs 0.636
Flying Wizards  0.400
Ice Dawgs 0.385

Now let’s assume, each team has one dominant offensive contributor and take out that player’s stats from each team.  Two weeks in, it looks like this -

Misfits 1.0
NorCal A 1.0
Pints 0.8
Puck Hogs 0.75
Ice Dawgs 0.67
Flying Wizards 0.45
 
Taking out the Ice Dawgs’ top scorer dramatically increases their average goals per player.  In other words, this one player scores a lot of goals for that team, but the average goes up because other people still contribute. 

At the bottom of the list is the Flying Wizards, who despite all of their scoring this season (they’ve scored 15 goals in two games) still have the lowest goals per player.  They go from near bottom to bottom of the list when you take out the top scorer from each team.  

What does this indicate?  There are only a select few players on that team who score and when you look at the scoresheets, you’ll see that only five out of 14 players on their team have ever scored a goal this season.   Clearly, considering how much they’ve outscored their opponents thus far, the Flying Wizards offense is based on a select few very talented individuals (let’s call them, I don’t know, “ringers”) who have no trouble getting lots of goals in Silver B while the bulk of that team – the non-scoring passengers - reap the rewards while contributing less than any other team in the league.

Singh10.

Parity? Draw your own conclusions.

I did a quick calculation of average goals scored per game for each team in Silver B, from preseason through first round of the playoffs:

Winter 2008-2009, Preseason through Round 1 of the Playoffs

This is based on Skatetown’s stats. If you rank by goals scored, it closely matches how the teams finished in the regular season, except that Norcal Crossover A, who actually finished above the Misfits, scored fewer goals per game on average. 

Also, from Yo MaMa up to Puck Hogs, the increase in goals scored per game happens in increments of about half a goal as you move up.  The increase widens for the Flying Wizards and Pints.  The average scored across the league (the gray dotted line in the chart) is 3.3 goals per game.

Singh10.

Pardon the interruption

The Puck Hogs main site was down for a couple of days while our website host (HomeTeamsOnline.com) was having server problems.  That, combined with my laziness, accounts for the lack of updates there and on here.  I generally post on the blog after I’ve updated the team site, but since I couldn’t do the latter, I didn’t get to the former.

In any case, the website is back up and running.   I’ve updated our team stats from our last two games, but will probably get back to updating the game stories after our game tonight.

Two weeks ago, we played Norcal Crossover A.  It was a tight game and one that you would expect from two teams so close in the standings.  We were one point up on them in the standings at that point, sitting in third place, but by the end of it, we won in the shootout and increased our cushion to two points.

On this blog, I think I’ve referred to our team philosophy when it comes to shootouts (except that I can’t find where!).  While most other teams put out the same three best goal scorers, on our team everyone gets a shot in the shootout.  We go down the list by roster number as the season progresses.   I don’t believe this has hurt us at all, and in fact, it has worked well.  Many times, we’ve seen guys who you wouldn’t expect to score get the goal when it’s their turn to shoot, and many times guys who you would expect to score who don’t. 

As captain, I’m supposed to designate our shooters each time.  I’ve been going down the roster by player number to assign our shooters.  But, I decided that I wouldn’t shoot until everyone else has had a chance (I just feel weird about calling my own number to shoot).  As of our game against Norcal, we had gone through our entire roster and I was the only one who hadn’t shot yet.  So, I shot first, and wouldn’t you know, I scored with what some members of my team called a “pimp shot” (a play on “pimp slap”).   It’s basically my only move.  It felt nice to be able to contribute to the team on the ice for a change.  I give credit to our goalie though, who held off all the other NCA shooters so that my goal would be the winner.  He’s actually played very well in the shootout, but perhaps that’s because we’ve had a bunch lately and so he’s getting some good practice!

Thanks, Jake. 

We took both our games last week in our league’s weekend doubleheader, defeating the Misfits and Yo MaMa in tight games (most of our games are close ones no matter who we play).  The wins, combined with the two Flappy Walkingsticks losses that weekend, put us one point back of them and their second place spot in the standings.  With one game left in the regular season, could the Puck Hogs grab second place from the Frickasseed WhoopingCranes? 

We find out tonight.  It can only happen if they lose their game in regulation against Norcal Crossover A, and then if we beat the first place and rarely defeated Pints tonight.  We have a little history with the Pints (and more specifically, an issue with a player on the Pints), but I’m looking forward to a clean game of hockey.  I hope they are as well.

There will be some scoreboard watching tonight (just like in the NHL these days), as it’s not just our position in the standings (and thereby our seeding for the playoffs) that could change, but also the teams in spots sixth to eight, who currently are the Ice Dawgs, the Yo MaMa, and the Pirates respectively.  Sixth and eighth place are separated by only two points.  Depending on how things go in the league overall tonight, we could face any one of them in the first round of the playoffs next week.

It’s certainly going to be an interesting night of hockey.

Singh10.

Picking up the pace

I’ve been feeling a little better lately about my game.  I’m not sure what accounts for it, and it’s probably imperceptible to those outside of my brain.   But, I feel like I’m skating a bit better, and am seeing the puck and the play a little better than I have been in a long while.  I’m also trying to push myself to get out of the comfort zone that I’ve played in for the longest time.

I’ve had a few good chances to score in my last few games, so maybe this is what is helping.  I had a bunch in our last game against the Ice Dawgs, though I wasn’t able to cash in on any of them.  This surge in confidence/feel-goodness has motivated me to try and get in another ice time during the week.  Since our team moved to playing Friday nights (as a result of the creation of Silver B), I’ve only played once a week. 

I used to play one game plus one drop-in or skills class per week.  The drop-in I used to attend was removed in place of our games on Friday nights, and there haven’t been any classes for months.  I’ve never felt that one session on the ice per week was enough, and I think it has had an impact on the development of my abilities on the ice as well as my enjoyment of the game.  So, I’ve resolved to get my butt out of bed early on the weekends to practice at the rink.  So far, it’s been great (“so far” being the one time I’ve done it since making the resolution to do it).

Speaking of the Ice Dawgs, we had a great game against them last Friday, except for some physical play all during the game on the part of one of their players, who later was ejected from the game.  I’m not sure what his deal was,  but I think in the end the referees handled that situation appropriately.  Some words were exchanged between players on their time and ours, but I’m not going to hold it against them or take it personally.  The Ice Dawgs certainly don’t have a reputation for dirty play and it was probably just due to emotions boiling over.

On another note, many of us were surprised to see the Pints finally lose a game in regulation.  Norcal Crossover A beat them 2-1 on Friday night.  Not to take anything away from the victors, but I wonder if the “fix” was in.  Consider the following:

• The week prior, during the Silver B Captain’s Meeting, the question of league parity came up.  I understand that the Pints team was mentioned as they were basically undefeated, but that consensus was that there isn’t a parity problem.  What happens the following week?  All of a sudden, the Pints lose a game.  The coincidence raises an eyebrow, doesn’t it?
• According to the official stat sheet, the Pints only had one shot on net against Norcal, on which they scored.  Apparently, they did not shoot any more than that.  How is it possible for an undefeated team to only have one shot on net?  Hmmm… perhaps because they didn’t want to score again?
• The Pints’ best player happened not to be at this game.  Another coincidence…
• The Pints and Norcal Crossover A are former/current roller hockey teams.  They know each other and it seems interesting that the Pints would lose to people they are familiar with.  Not to sound surfacist, but we ice players have noticed that roller players tend to be a bit sketchy.

So, I think the circumstantial evidence speaks for itself here.  The Pints threw a game because they want to avoid being moved up to Silver A next season.

And finally, has the offseason already started?  It’s only February but I’ve heard of some activity with a captain or two approaching players (including those on my team) to join theirs next season - though I don’t know which league specifically; it could be in our league (in which case they are looking to poach our roster) or another.  It seems several of our guys have been approached. 

Perhaps it’s better to be proactive this year and get myself going in that regard.  It seems that the country’s economic woes are having an impact on whether many people will be able to play next season, as employment is becoming an issue and hockey has to take its place on the affordability bubble.  As such, I’ve started this week to begin my team planning for next season.  Hopefully, by starting earlier, the offseason won’t seem as difficult as it usually has been.

Singh10.